March 22, 2023

According to England’s ONS (Office of National Statistics) the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 9.2% as at February 2023 while the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 10.4%. CPIH & CPI in January 2023 were 8.8% & 10.1% respectively. ONS noted that, “CPIH rose by 9.2% in the 12 months to February 2023, up from 8.8% in January but below a recent peak of 9.6% in October 2022. Indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates suggest that the October 2022 rate was the highest rate in over 40 years. Since October 2022, the CPIH annual rate has fluctuated around 9.2%, a rate that was previously recorded just over 30 years ago, between September and December 1990”.

Since February 2023, the largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate came from increases in the divisions ‘housing and household services’ (principally from increases in electricity, gas, and other fuels) and increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages. On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 1.0% in February 2023 up from 0.7% February 2022.

The largest upward contributions to the monthly change in both the CPIH and CPI rates came from restaurants and cafes, food, and clothing, partially offset by downward contributions from recreational and cultural goods and services (particularly recording media), and motor fuels. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 1.1% in February 2023, in comparison to a 0.8% rise in February 2022.

According to the Office of National Statistics, “The main drivers of the annual inflation rate for CPIH and CPI are the same where they are common to both measures. However, the owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) component accounts for around 16% of the CPIH and is the main driver for differences between the CPIH and CPI inflation rates. This makes CPIH our most comprehensive measure of inflation.”

The CPIH all goods index rose by 13.4% in February 2023, up slightly from 13.3% in January 2023. The rise in the rate stemmed from an upward contribution to the change from food, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco. This has been largely offset by a downward contribution from industrial goods, with overall energy prices rising by 48.3% in the year to February 2023, down from 50.7% in the year to January, principally caused by movements in motor fuel prices.

The CPIH all services index rose by 5.6% in February 2023, up from 5.2% in January 2023. The largest upward contribution to the change in the rate between January and February 2023 was from recreational and personal services (almost entirely from catering services), with the annual inflation rate rising from 9.4% to 10.4% between January and February 2023. There were smaller upward contributions from travel and transport services, and communication.

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